TURNING OVER THE SAME LEAF?

NEW SEASON

September marked the first month of the 2020/21 football season. A season that has started with no fans, missing players due to COVID and new schedules created around the pandemic. 

Even with these significant changes in the sport it did not stop our AI from predicting the outcome of games. Initially there was some apprehension as to whether the AI could adapt to the changes in the sport. 

The results below speak for themselves.

ENGLISH LEAGUES OVERALL

-10 %
ROI (ALL)
0 %
ACCURACY (ALL)
0 %
EXPECTED ACCURACY (ALL)
0
NO. OF PREDICTIONS (ALL)
0 %
ROI (OVER 2)
0 %
ACCURACY (OVER 2)
0 %
EXPECTED ACCURACY (OVER 2)
0
NO. OF PREDICTIONS (OVER 2)

EUROPEAN LEAGUES OVERALL

-10 %
ROI (ALL)
0 %
ACCURACY (ALL)
0 %
EXPECTED ACCURACY (ALL)
0
NO. OF PREDICTIONS (ALL)
0 %
ROI (OVER 2)
0 %
ACCURACY (OVER 2)
0 %
EXPECTED ACCURACY (OVER 2)
0
NO. OF PREDICTIONS (OVER 2)

ANALYSIS

As you can see from the stats above, across every league we cover we managed to predict at a greater accuracy than the odds suggested possible. 

Let’s deal with the only shortcoming in the results above which was a -2% ROI on our overall European leagues predictions. This was heavily impacted by the bad month we’ve had with our Eredivisie predictions. It was the only league where we saw a negative ROI across both the overall predictions and the Over 2 predictions. Despite this our accuracy on these predictions was 6% higher than the expected accuracy based on the odds. 

On the other hand, we have seen amazing successes with our predictions on the English leagues. As a matter of fact we have seen significant successes in our Premier League predictions, whereby the odds are usually the sharpest of any football league in the world. 

This indicates to us that the impact of COVID is in fact benefiting our AI. We believe this could be due to the AI being able to learn and adapt to changes in what it is predicting. Due to this it is able to make predictions that are slightly altered to what the bookmaker’s odds suggest. This has led us to have an amazing first month of predictions and take advantage of the slow change in odds. 

Finally, the most profitable league across the month of September was in fact 2 different leagues. For every prediction made the most profitable league was the English Championship with a 13% ROI across 36 predictions. For our Over 2 predictions the most profitable league was the English League One with an ROI of 61% across 9 predictions. Quite impressive if we do say so ourselves.

As always we would like to state that these results are still relatively limited given the season has only been running for a month. Even with this in mind the AI has started exceptionally and we do not believe it will slow down any time soon!

We hope you  enjoyed this Akka Tips update!  

We hope you are all keeping safe and well.

To gain access to our AIs & Stats just click here.

Glossary

Akka = The name of our AI.

ROI (Return on Investment) = Profit as a percentage of total money invested.

Calculation: (Money Won – Total Money Staked)/ Total Money Staked

Over 2 = Any of our AI’s predictions where odds were greater than 2 and less than 3 (decimal odds).

Bookmaker’s Predicted Probability = Converting bookmaker odds to a probability.

Calculation (based on decimal odds): 1 / Odds

Stats Zone = Part of our Football Package offering stats for 14+ European Leagues.

Backtest = Use the AI to predict past data showing the accuracy levels if used in the past.

Sharp = When odds are very close to the true outcome of an event meaning it is difficult to profit from these bets. 

 

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